There has been a lot of discussion about the proposed ISU judging changes on gs and fsu forums. According to those sites there will be these kind of changes in men’s skating next season:

- Men will be allowed to try two different types of quads in the SP
- The base value of the quad won’t change
- There will be only one step sequence in the SP
- The second step sequence for men will receive a fixed base value in the FS
- Jump combinations would get 10 % bonus base value
- The men also must pick either camel or sit for their flying spin in the SP and do the other position for their change foot single position spin

How do you think these kind of changes will affect on Brian’s chances to be on the podium next season? I know it’s difficult to speculate…. I don’t think he will try two different quads in the SP anyways, it’s too risky. And the fact that the base value for quad won’t change must be disappointing for him. But how will the changes in the step sequences affect, any guesses?

The base value of the quad won’t change?
great
so, if i were brian, i would try more combinations

I like some of the propose changes, don't like some others. I DON'T like dropping the second step sequence in the SP, because I like step sequences much more than spins (well, not so much since CoP), but this could have a positive effect on Brian's chances.

SP changes
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- Allowing 2 quads in the SP is a good move for the sport. I don't like restrictions holding back people from performing something they can do (I like the proposal to allow ladies a 3A instead of 2A), however I don't see any impact on actual skating. With the exception of Canada's Kevin Reynolds, who actualy has 2 reliable quads, there is no man, Brian included, who would take a risk on a second quad (which has to be done from steps) in the SP.

- Dropping the second step sequence probabky means that even more emphasis will be placed on transitions. However, this change will allow some 20-30 seconds for these additional transitions, so no major change here. I think skaters can still perform some sort of (second) step sequence and now it will count towards the TR and not get assigned a value of its own. Brian normally does one Lv2 and one Lv3 step sequence, and gets good GoE for them. Now he can concentrate on the Lv3, maybe upgrade to Lv4, still get good GoE, do a simplified step/moves in the field sequence and have it count in his TR - so no one could say he has none. Dropping a non-jump element gives more weight to the jumps, and that is good for Brian. Dropping one Lv 3/4 step sequence hurts the Chans, Lysaceks and Takahashis more than it hurts Brian.

- I like the changes proposed to spins. I can't stand 3 variations on a sit spin. Brian has a very nice camel, it's time he showed it to us again.

LP changes
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- More points for combos - FINALLY. Good move for the sport. It is good for all jumpers, but they have to utilize their combos to the max to enjoy it. Certainly time for a 3-3, Brian.

- Limit on 2As - meaning the skaters without a quad won't be able to compensate so much by adding 2As. So I guess that is good for Brian.

- Fixed value for second step sequence - much like in the SP, this hurts the Chans and Lysaceks most. Again Brain should have a Lv3 or Lv4 for his first sequence, then go with a simple Lv2 with great energy for the finale, get the crowd going and a good GoE.

I am still P%^$^&ed that no changes to the base values of 3As and quads were proposed, but all in all it is a positive change for skating and good for Brian.

Lonnie

Thanks for your good analysis, Lonnie!
I do hope that next season will be better for Brian in many ways. What happened at Olys still makes me a bit sad and I hope Brian can get over it, though I know it can still bother him. It will be interesting to see the choreos next season and 20-30 seconds more transitions, lol!!

Lonnie ,Thank you for your interesting comment!
I hope that Brian will use these novelties and that he continues working his transitions (he does not have choi) and twirls even if there is change at this level! Finallement some things are not so wrong if I understood well damage but that the catch of risk concerning quads is not reset!

Merci pour ton commentaire intéressant !
J'espère que Brian profitera de ces nouveautés et qu'il continue de travailler ses transitions ( il n' a pas le choi) et les pirouettes même s'il y a du changement à ce niveau !Finallement certaines choses ne sont pas si mal si j'ai bien compris mais dommage que la prise de risque concernant les quads ne soit pas réajustée

For an excercise I "rescored" the SP and LP for Brian, Takahashi and Chan in Torino, using the proposed new rules. It is not a true indication of what we might see next year, because programs could be choreographed differently, but it will give us an idea of how these changes impact skating.

I applied the 1.1 factor to all combos, in both programs.

For the SP I removed the lower level step sequence. In Brian's case it was a Lv2 and for the others Lv3. Since I assume the guys will use the time to do some transitions/choreography I added a little to the TR and CH score of both Dai and Patrick, who has a more complex sequence, to a total addition of 0.5 to the PCS.
Also, all three, as did most men, had both a Flying Sit spin and a Sit-change-Sit, which is now forbidden. I replaced their flying sit with a flying camel of one lower level, since it is more difficult. I left all GoEs in place.

As a result of this manipulation, all marks dropped (there are only 7 elements) to the following:
Dai - 86.35, Chan - 84.75 and Brian - 85.98. You can see that Brian benefitted most from this change and not only did he advance to 2nd on the SP, but he came very close to Dai. In fact, under the new rules Brian's TES is more than 2 points ahead of the others, but Dai held on to first on his PCS.

However, in the free program the impact is minimized. I applied the 10% combo bonus and removed the base value from the lower level step sequence (but left the GoE, since the second sequence will get a fixed value and GoE). After recalculating the TES for all top 4 (I included Brezina) I found that the change was in mere tenth of a point. The reason for this low impact is that the combo bonus ranges from 0.5 for the lowest combo (2A+2T) to a 1.4 for the biggest combo (4T+3T). Since 3 combos are allowed the men are doing one hard combo, one easy and one "average" and so they all get about the same bonus, to a difference of about 1 point - which can easily be negated by GoE and a higher level step sequence.

In any case, the result stayed the same (Dai first, Chan second, Brian third).

I'm sure there's more to think of.

Lonnie

Thanks Lonnie for your insights!
I hope Brian will find a way to make these changes work for him! (Maybe that should include hiring you, LOL!)

lonnie...Thanks for your analysis of what could happen to skaters' SPs if the new proposed changes to scoring are implemented.

One thing which hasn't been mentioned is that such proposed changes will cause the skaters to push their physical limits much earlier in the competition. Adding the option of a second quad in the SP will tire the skaters out a lot faster than what it does currently. Also it is interesting that there is no mention of increasing the points value for the quad, though. It appears the the ISU's goal, by giving the opportunity for a second quad in the SP, is to give them the chance to gain more points by adding that second quad rather than by increasing the points for one quad. The added quad will certainly work to challenge the skaters' physical strengths and weaknesses earlier in the competition, and I think that is the ISU's real goal, here....to make figure skating more "sport-like" and less the beautiful, graceful sport. In a way I can understand their reasoning. However I'm not certain it's all that good for the sport because of the radical changes which are developing in it due to CoP.

If the one of the goals is to push the skater's stanima level earlier in the competition it sets up the importance of putting out two as-nearly-perfect-as-possible quads in the SP so as not to foul up the points values going into the FP;this creates a lot more psychological pressure for the skater. Pulling this off will require different strategy to what skaters are accustomed. It's no longer the case where the skater can make up for any failures of the SP in the FP; the requirements of nailing everything in the SP will be just as import as what they are in the FP, now. If all these changes get voted through, it's going to be extremely interesting to watch how the coaches and skaters tackle this challenge.

Mary C.

I don't think any skater would actualy take advantage of the 2-quad SP. There are a number of skaters who can land quads in the LP who don't take the risk in the SP. By removing an element in the SP and thus adding weight to the jumps, the ISU put even more pressure/risk on the jumps - mess one up and you've messed up more than 1/7 of your program.
To take advantage of this change you need two reliable quads of a different kind. The only skater who can currently do so is Kevin Reynolds.
Just putting 2 quad-toes together in a LP is such a difficult feat - see how much effort it cost Brain in Torino and Lambiel at Olys and Euros. I hope Brian doesn't fall for this "opportunity".

I think that this proposed change is good, because forbidding skaters from doing difficult elements is not sport, but I also suspect that by proposing this change the ISU wants to shut up the quad-campaigners, and it is wrong, because this change does not, in fact, encourage skaters to try quads, as long as the risk-reward ratio remains as it is today.

Lonnie

Yay, good news - just off the wire at FSU:
New ISU comminucation http://isu.sportcentric.net/db//files/serve.php?id=1862 gives new base values for jumps.

The 2A has been reduced from 3.5 to 3.3, the 3A raised to 8.5 and 4T to 10.3. Still not enough but way better than before.

Small underrotations will now get 70% base value of full rotation, large underrotations still downgraded (this is very fair).

GoE factor adjusted - still not completely fair for the big jumps but again better than it was before.

All of these are good news for advocates of the quad and 3A. The risk of a quad attempt is reduced - a fall on a slightly URs quad will still get 7.2 base value and the GOE factor is back to 1, so a net point gain of 3.2 - compared with zero as it was before.

Also, the second step sequece with fixed value is worth 2.0 with a positive GoE factor of 1.0, meaning that a good performance could get you around 4 points. I haven't seen anything explaining how the GoE on this sequence will be marked.

Better to dwell on this than on Brian's coaching situation. I don't need any more grey hairs.

Lonnie

Just ran through the spreadsheet I made earlier this week for the men's SP in Torino (the LP spreadsheet I did on the compuer at work, don't tell me boss ) and with the new values Brian wins the SP by about a half point over Dai and nearly 3 points over Chan. I guess this meansgood change, right?

And Sciele, this puts a new twist on the two-quad rule for the SP, because suddenly the risk is not as bad and the possible gain is considerable. I'll have to run some more numbers tomorrow...

Lonnie

Thank you so much loonie for the detailed analysis, quite helpful. Don't worry, your secret's safe

I eagerly await tomorrow's analysis.